The Bachelorette Analytics - Predicting Which Lucky Man Will Win the Heart of an Unknown Bachelorette

by Fantasy 4 Reality May 18, 2015

DOUBLING DOWN

Does It Even Matter Who The Bachelorette Is?

Here at Fantasy 4 Reality we are always looking to gain any edge we can in the competitive world of reality television fantasy leagues. We even considered deflating the air in our laptops, but it turns out that decreased air pressure does not help predict the outcome of a reality show. What does help, however, is statistical analysis of the past. Observing the impact that advanced metrics and data analysis has had in the sports world, our data nerds applied the same analysis to The Bachelor last season with mixed results. 1 Given the fact that our data nerds could not have anticipated the Iowa Corollary, we asked them to return to their cave and crank out a statistical analysis for The Bachelorette to predict this season’s winner. And, don’t worry, we told them to take this more seriously this time.

We know what you are thinking. But, wait! How can we predict which suitor the Bachelorette will choose, if we don’t even know who she is yet? Easy. All women are looking for the same thing in a man. Seriously, though, for our purposes, it does not matter if the Bachelorette is Kaitlyn (Yeah!) or Britt (Boo!) because our analysis is based on the results of past seasons of The Bachelorette and takes into account the fact that different women have been at the show’s helm. Our results are based on facts and math and don’t take into account the personalities and desires of the particular contestants and leading ladies. So, without further ado, here is our analysis for this season of The Bachelorette.

The Data

It turns out that the internet randomly failed to keep track of the biographies of the contestants who appeared on seasons 1 (Trista Rehn) and 3 (Jen Schefft) of The Bachelorette. As with The Bachelor, it’s good to know that we have reached a point now where no detail is too trivial to be debated and preserved for future reference and examination. Anyway, since we are missing the data for seasons 1 and 3, our analysis includes the results from the other eight seasons of the show.

During this span, there have been eight different Bachelorettes and 205 men competing for their affection. As we all know, many of these alpha males were cast aside in week 1 after failing to impress the Bachelorette with a ludicrous limo entrance or cocktail party gimmick. 13 of these men have been lucky enough to make it to the final week before either being sent packing by the Bachelorette in a tropical location or quietly dumping her a few months later. And somehow three of these men found true love during a two-month reality television competition and married the Bachelorette. 2

We collected contestant data on the following:

  • Age
  • Age difference with the Bachelorette
  • Hometown State
  • Arbitrarily Defined Job Category (such as Athletics, Performance, etc.) and Estimated Salary

We then analyzed whether any of these factors or a combination of these factors has resulted in making it to the final episode. Finally, we applied this same analysis to the new crop of contestants to predict how they will fare with either Kaitlyn Bristowe (fingers crossed) or Britt Nilsson (Ugh).


Age

At the time of filming, the Bachelorettes have either been 26 or 27 years old with the exception of Meredith Phillips and Jillian Harris who were 30. Throughout the years, the average age of the male finalists is 29.25 with three 27-year-olds and three 29-year-olds making it to the final two. Apparently, the Bachelorettes prefer men right on the cusp of turning 30. In other words, right about the time in their lives where they might stop thinking only about themselves.

Our Advice: Draft late 20s or early 30s.



Age Difference

As you can see from looking at our handy chart below, it’s beneficial for a male contestant to be a few years older than the Bachelorette. This fact doubles as the most obvious dating advice in history and proof that the Bachelorettes are rarely cougars. A closer look at the chart reveals that being significantly older or younger than the Bachelorette leads to an early elimination. After episode 4, the remaining men tend to be around the same age as the Bachelorette (the average is one to two years older than she is). As in real life, the winners have been one to two years older than the leading lady with the exception of J.P. Rosenbaum who is eight years older than Ashley Hebert. Somehow this advanced age did not give him the wisdom to avoid participating with his wife in a nationally televised ultrasound a few years later.

Our Advice: Draft a man one to two years older than the woman you anticipate will be the Bachelorette. Stay away from men younger than the Bachelorette and men significantly older.

Geography

Contestants have sought the love of the Bachelorette from the vast majority of states, but two stand out as particular hotbeds for male contestants: California and Texas. A total of 53 contestants have hailed from these two states – 25% of all men competing for love.

So, given the percentage of Texans and Californians appearing on the show, we would expect two of the eight winners to call these states home. Think again. No one from these states has received the final rose, meaning, just as in life, Texans and Californians have grossly underperformed on The Bachelorette. Given their numbers, Midwesterners and New Englanders have also underperformed. On the other end of the spectrum, men from New York, Oregon, and Utah have outperformed expectations. It seems women like money, Mormons, and monsoons.

Our Advice:

Don’t mess with Texas. While you’re at it avoid La La Land, Chi-Town and Bean Town. Draft anyone whose favorite Dream Team members were Clyde Drexler, Karl Malone, John Stockton, and Patrick Ewing.

Jobs

Given the variety of jobs held by the 205 contestants appearing on the eight seasons of The Bachelorette for which we have data, our analytics team broke down their jobs into the following 11 categories:

  1. Athletics (A) – Former or Current Professional Athletes
  2. Students (ST) – College or Graduate Students (so far, no high school students have appeared)
  3. Entrepreneur (E) – Self-Explanatory
  4. Professional (PRO) – Financial Advisors and Analysts, Accountants, Lawyers, Doctors, Executives, Bankers, Engineers, CEOs
  5. Performance (PER) – Actors, Dancers, Models, Wrestlers, Singers/Songwriters, DJs, Magicians, Opera Singers, Meteorologists
  6. Sales (SA) – Self-Explanatory
  7. Service/Design (SD) – Graphic Designer, Landscaping, Marketing/Advertising
  8. Leisure/Hospitality (LH) – Bartenders, Waiters, Personal Trainers, Wedding Coordinators, Hairstylists, Resort Manager, Chef, Winemakers, Catering Manager, Photographer
  9. Armed Forces (AF) – Self-explanatory
  10. Farmer (F) – Self-Explanatory
  11. Education/Mental Health/Community (EMC) – Coaches, Teachers, Counselors
  12. Of the 16 finalists, five have been current or former professional athletes. In fact, athletes have received the final rose on four occasions – 50% of the time over the eight seasons we were able to analyze. Of these athletes, former baseball players have left the show with a fiancé three times. The next most successful class of men fall into the professional ranks, having made the finale on four occasions. Professionals have been the last man standing twice. On the other end of the spectrum, students, performers, farmers, and educators/mental health professionals have never made the finale. 3

    Our Advice:

    To quote All The President’s Men, “follow the money.” Like the real world, money and athletic prowess win the day. First, draft anyone who is or was a professional athlete of any kind, especially baseball players. Next, draft successful professionals. Stay away from students or anyone else who does not appear likely to be able to support the Bachelorette in a comfortable fashion.

    Who Will Be Proposing to the Unknown Bachelorette?

    Here’s where our data nerds earn their paychecks. Anyone can explain the past, but can we predict the future? Who is going to win season 11 and propose to the winner of the grudge match between Kaitlyn and Britt (please be Kaitlyn!)? Well, let’s see what we can do. It’s time to apply our analysis to the 25 contestants competing for the heart of our mystery Bachelorette and put you in the best position to win your league. No longer will you need to rely on your gut and personal opinion about which of the contestants is the most attractive or charming. Instead, sit back, have a glass of Pinot Grigio and a bag of gluten free kale chips, and let our algorithms and research do the work.

    While we all understand that appearance, personality, and avoiding idiotic gestures is critical to success on The Bachelorette, we now also know that there are a few pieces of tangible data that can help predict who will prevail in their quest to find love. Basically, the ideal contestant is a late 20s or early 30s, professional athlete or white collar professional from New York, Utah, or Oregon. Conversely, the worst contestant is an early 20s or mid 30s student or teacher from Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, and Boston. Let’s look at how the 25 contestants looking to find love in a hopeless place shake out in each category.

    Age

    Remember, the average age of finalists is 29.25. The odds of picking a winner are therefore improved if you draft contestants as close to 29 as possible. Ironically enough, though, none of this season’s contestants are 29.

    Basically the Right Age (30): Corey

    Close Enough (28 and 31): Chris, Daniel, Ian, Joe, Joshua, Justin, Ryan M., Shawn B., Shawn E., Tanner

    Borderline (27 and 32): Clint, JJ, Josh, Kupah, Ryan B

    Too Old or Too Young (26 or Younger and 33 and Older): Ben H., Ben Z., Bradley, Brady, Cory, David, Jared, Jonathan, Tony

    Age Difference

    Kaitlyn is 29 years old and Britt is 27. Since the Bachelorette is on average 1 to 2 years younger than the finalists, if you anticipate Kaitlyn will be the Bachelorette, look for men who are 30 or 31. If you are betting on Britt being the Bachelorette, select men who are 28 or 29.

    1 or 2 Years Older Than Kaitlyn: Corey, Joshua, Shawn E.

    1 or 2 Years Older Than Britt: Chris, Daniel, Ian, Joe, Justin, Ryan M., Shawn B., Tanner

    Men Younger Than Both Bachelorettes: Ben H., Ben Z., Bradley, David, Jared

    Men Significantly Older Than Both Bachelorettes: Brady, Cory, Jonathan, Tony

    Geography

    For this category, you want men from New York, Utah, and Oregon. Colorado, Michigan, Florida, and Georgia have also spawned winners. More importantly, you want to avoid men hailing from California, Texas, Illinois, and Massachusetts.

    Positive Hometown: Ben H., Bradley, Corey, David, Jonathan, JJ, Ryan B.

    Neutral Hometown: Amanda, Amber, Carly, Kelsey, Whitney

    Negative Hometown: Ben Z., Clint, Cory, Ian, Josh, Justin, Kupah, Shawn E.

    Jobs

    Athletes and white collar professionals have performed best on the show. Bachelorettes have been turned off by students, performers, farmers, teachers, and those who work in the mental health or counseling fields.

    Attractive Jobs to the Bachelorettes (PRO, A): Brady (former professional baseball player), Chris, Clint, Corey, JJ

    Satisfactory Jobs to the Bachelorette (SA, SD, LH, E, AF): Ben H., Ben Z., Bradley, Cory, Daniel, David, Ian, Jared, Joe, Jonathan, Joshua, Justin, Kupah, Ryan B., Shawn B., Tanner

    Repellant Jobs to the Bachelorette (ST, PER, FAR, EMC): Brady, Josh, Ryan M., Shawn E., Tony

    The F4R Bachelorette Finalists Decision Tree

    OK, so once again our analytics team put together this “helpful” tree to assist you in combining all of the results of the individual categories into one formula. This should allow you to predict the finalists with ease.

    The F4R Bachelorette Decision Tree for Men Escaping the First Night with a Rose in Tow

    Given the bloodbath that is the first episode of the season, it is critically important to survive week 1. Fortunately, as demonstrated in the trusty little tree below, there are a number of routes for a contestant to make it through the first rose ceremony with her dignity in tact.

    Who Escapes the First Round?

    By following our handy “Surviving the First Round” tree, we can predict who is most likely to have more than one conversation with Kaitlyn or Britt more than twice.

    In a perfect world in which Kaitlyn is the Bachelorette, these six men have the best odds going on an actual date with her: Corey, Cory, Ian, Justin, Ryan M., and Tanner

    If the men are conned into voting for Britt, these ten men have the best odds going on an actual date with her: Ben H., Ben Z., Clint, Corey, Cory, Ian, Josh, Justin, Ryan M., and Tanner

    Who Makes the Finals?

    And now the moment of truth. Who will be holding his breath and praying that a woman he met six weeks prior will select him to propose to her on national TV so that he can cheer her on as she competes for a mirror ball trophy next season?

    And the envelope please …

    If men have a brain and Kaitlyn is the Bachelorette, the most likely men to make the finals and have a shot to win her heart are: Chris, Clint, Daniel, Ian, Joe, Justin and Tanner

    If men are who we think they are and Britt is the Bachelorette, the most likely men to make the finals and have a shot to be conned into proposing are: Ben H., Ben Z., Bradley, Chris, Clint, Daniel, David, Ian, Joe, Justin, and Tanner.

    Therefore, the men who look like decent bets regardless of who the Bachelorette turns out to be are: Chris, Clint, Daniel, Ian, Joe, Justin, and Tanner

    Good luck in your draft! We hope this analysis gives you an edge over your league members who actually believe that personality, appearance and chemistry mean something. And remember when you are watching all the crying, drinking, dancing, hot tubbing, helicopter riding, gift giving, poetry reading, and fantasy suite inviting, that there is nothing many of these men can do to win the final rose. Their odds of success were determined long before they exited the limo and embarrassed themselves in an attempt to win over one of two women on national television.